Football (NFL) Spreads

I’m not really interested in Fantasy Football leagues (or other Fantasy sport leagues) but back in the early 90’s, I joined an NFL football pool when I was working at a bank (and I’m still in the pool). I thought I could apply some AI to the concept of picking my weekly picks. 🙂 Everybody’s got to have a hobby!! 🙂

My approach was, I don’t care who is playing, who is hurt, etc.. but rather there is favoritism/bias in the odds-makers approach to picking teams/setting the odds and the opposite is true (under estimating a team).

So, back in the early 90’s I wrote a couple of programs (in REXX), to try and determine the odds-makers bias. I tweaked the code through the early and mid 90’s to get it where I thought it was working. I started out with a “straight linear” (Fixed scale) approach to the odds-makers bias then added an “exponential” (Small Sliding scale) approach. I found the exponential worked better and have been using it ever since. In the 2000’s, I updated the code and added 2 more approaches: Fibonacci Sliding scale and Large Sliding scale. Fibonacci Sliding scale approach appears to have a lot of potential but I have not started to use it for my picks.

So, am I going to publish the code or open source it. No. So, why am I bringing it up? It is programming and an odd concept plus last week my picks were 14-2. Hence, I won the week (# 12) in the pools I am in. 🙂

Now of course, does that mean my program will do well this week – no. Also, for week # 6, the program was 1-13 – pretty bad. So, it is truly like a roller-coaster ride. 🙂

Besides determining the odds-makers bias, the program also ranks the probability of the pick being successful. So, I thought I would publish the Small Sliding scale and Fibonacci Sliding scale picks each week – kind of put my money where my mouth is. 🙂

Small Sliding scale (week # 13 picks):

F1   Arizona Cardinals               at      New York Jets          F4.5
F2   New York Giants      F2.5       at      Washington Redskins
U3   Tampa Bay Buccaneers            at      Denver Broncos         F7.0
F4   Philadelphia Eagles             at      Dallas Cowboys         F4.5
F5   Jacksonville Jaguars            at      Buffalo Bills          F6.0
U6   Carolina Panthers               at      Kansas City Chiefs     F3.0
U7   Minnesota Vikings               at      Green Bay Packers      F9.0
U8   Indianapolis Colts              at      Detroit Lions          F4.5
F9   New Orleans Saints              at      Atlanta Falcons        F3.5
U10  Cincinnati Bengals              at      San Diego Chargers     F2.5
F11  Pittsburgh Steelers             at      Baltimore Ravens       F4.0
U12  Cleveland Browns                at      Oakland Raiders        F1.5
F13  Seattle Seahawks                at      Chicago Bears          F3.0
F14  San Francisco 49ers  F7.0       at      St. Louis Rams
F15  New England Patriots F7.0       at      Miami Dolphins
F16  Houston Texans       F5.5       at      Tennessee Titans

Fibonacci Sliding scale (week # 13 picks):

U1   Indianapolis Colts              at      Detroit Lions          F4.5
F2   Arizona Cardinals               at      New York Jets          F4.5
U3   New York Giants      F2.5       at      Washington Redskins
F4   Seattle Seahawks                at      Chicago Bears          F3.0
F5   Carolina Panthers               at      Kansas City Chiefs     F3.0
F6   Philadelphia Eagles             at      Dallas Cowboys         F4.5
F7   Jacksonville Jaguars            at      Buffalo Bills          F6.0
U8   Cleveland Browns                at      Oakland Raiders        F1.5
U9   Minnesota Vikings               at      Green Bay Packers      F9.0
F10  Pittsburgh Steelers             at      Baltimore Ravens       F4.0
U11  Cincinnati Bengals              at      San Diego Chargers     F2.5
F12  New Orleans Saints              at      Atlanta Falcons        F3.5
F13  New England Patriots F7.0       at      Miami Dolphins
F14  Houston Texans       F5.5       at      Tennessee Titans
U15  Tampa Bay Buccaneers            at      Denver Broncos         F7.0
F16  San Francisco 49ers  F7.0       at      St. Louis Rams

So what does it mean?

F1   Arizona Cardinals               at      New York Jets          F4.5

F1 means the favorite team will cover the spread with the lowest probability of success (don’t bet on it).

U8   Indianapolis Colts              at      Detroit Lions          F4.5

U8 means that underdog team will beat the spread (favorite will not cover the spread) with a medium probability of success.

F16  Houston Texans       F5.5       at      Tennessee Titans

F16 means that the favorite team will cover the spread with the highest probability of success.

As you can see, Small Sliding scale and Fibonacci Sliding scale have completely different results.

Enjoy. 🙂 As they say in the stock market, past perform is no indication of future performance.

Regards,
Roger Lacroix